Foreign Media: 30 years rising living standards in China will catch up with Europe and the United States _ | | | Europe and development news
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French media said, and soon after, the Chinese will reach the French standard of living, Turks and Russians will live as well with the Italian, Vietnamese people's purchasing power will be increased from the current four times, Saudis are richer than the Americans! This is the PricewaterhouseCoopers accounting firm predictions for 2050 GDP per capita.
According to French newspaper Les Echos reported on March 16, 2050 seems very far away, but the rest of the year it is a little more than a generation. Seen from the time from 2050 than the election of former French President Francois Mitterrand also in close proximity.
Of course, the world's poorest countries does not become the world's richest countries: starting from a distance runner won fewer opportunities, but they can speed up, Chase became a powerful lever for growth, as the French glory "30" as shown (from 1947 to 1974, the annual growth rate of almost 6%).
Since is what happened in the 1990 of the 20th century, particularly in Asia, the next decades will continue this trend, this is PWC's Chief Economist yuehan·huokesiwosi, head of the conclusions of the expert team. In Vietnam and Bangladesh, income will be increased from the current four times, and now the growth in developed countries will only have 50%-70%.
Seven major emerging economies (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey) and the Group of seven's annual growth rate will be 3.5% and 1.6% respectively. Results: the convergence of living standards will continue to be substantial. The PWC study among 32 countries, living standards gap between the best and worst countries will decrease by half, from 14 to 7.
The gap between the United States and China will narrow the margin of almost (from 3.7 to 2). Hierarchy between the countries will not be reversed, but may be upset. Just imagine South Korean and Malaysian purchasing power than the French (French people's purchasing power will also increase 56%), Poland than Japanese earn more, Russians are earning more than Italians.
Reports should look at these numbers, education, improvement of living standards depends on the investment climate, such as fair distribution and technology assumptions. In terms of technological progress, labour productivity growth in the United States 1.5%, although this is PWC experts forecast dropped the number from a previous 2%, but is still low.
"We assume that the overall policy to (but not perfect) growth, and there is no threat to civilization's major catastrophic events. "There are many things to do in emerging countries. In addition to training and configuration effort, they should diversify their economies, so as to reduce dependency on raw materials (now is the case with Nigeria and Saudi Arabia), strengthened the country's political institutions and the judiciary.
Reports, maintain the continuity of these policies will not be easy. And even if the implementation of these policies, "is also the premise of the above policy can continue, forecasts on future potential growth, rather than true prophecies for the future".
Reported, "Black Swan" event nature can break these prospects. PricewaterhouseCoopers experts, like other forecasters, failed to predict the opening up of China and the collapse of the Soviet Union, nuclear accident or the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. They are very aware of the risks: "times have changed, when emerging economies mature, short-term political turmoil and economic dislocation that will inevitably occur. ”
But they were still optimistic: "if companies and other investors have the patience, then will gain significant benefit over the longer term. "In other words, future crises will not break the main price trends.
Reports, if you accept this, then there is another problem. If nearly 1.4 billion Chinese living standards is now 65 million French living standards comparable to how it's going to be a planet? The answer is obvious: a larger planet than Earth, has more minerals and gas emissions and the greenhouse effect is not very sensitive ecosystems. After a generation, the living standards of billions of people may be much higher, this is wonderful news. However, this requires that all people taking different kind of way.
Source: references
> Editor: Li Peng
Article keywords:Europe and the development
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外媒：30年后中国人生活水平会追上欧美国家|生活|欧美|发展_新闻资讯
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法媒称，不久之后，中国人将达到法国人现在的生活水平，土耳其人和俄罗斯人将生活得与意大利人一样好，越南人的购买力将增至目前的四倍，沙特人将比美国人还要富有！这是普华永道会计师事务所对2050年人均国内生产总值的预测结果。
据法国《回声报》3月16日报道，2050年看起来似乎还很遥远，但距离它剩下的年份也就是一代人多一点。从时间上看，距离2050年比距离法国前总统密特朗的当选还要近。
当然，当今世界最贫穷的国家并不会成为明日世界最富有的国家：从越远处起跑的赛跑运动员夺得冠军的机会就越少，但他们可以加速，追赶成为一种强大的增长杠杆，正如法国在“光荣30年”间所表现出来的那样（从1947年到1974年，年均增长率将近6%）。
自20世纪90年代以来就是这种情形，特别是在亚洲，未来数十年还将继续这种趋势，这是普华永道首席经济学家约翰·霍克斯沃思率领的专家团队提出的结论。在越南和孟加拉国，收入将增至目前的四倍，而现在的发达国家增幅将仅有50%-70%。
七大新兴国家（巴西、中国、印度、印度尼西亚、墨西哥、俄罗斯和土耳其）与七国集团的年增长率将分别是3.5%和1.6%。结果：生活水平将继续大幅趋同。在普华永道研究的32个国家当中，最好国家与最差国家之间的生活水平差距将减小一半，从14减到7。
美国与中国之间的差距也将缩小差不多的幅度（从3.7到2）。国家之间的等级结构不会被反转，但会被打乱。只要想象一下韩国人和马来西亚人的购买力超过法国人（法国人的购买力也将增长56%）、波兰人比日本人挣得多、俄罗斯人收入超过意大利人。
报道称，应当相对看待这些数字，生活水平的提高取决于投资、教育、气候平衡、公平分配以及技术进步等方面的假设。在技术进步方面，美国的劳动生产率年均增长1.5%，尽管这是普华永道的专家们从此前2%的预测降至这个数字，但依然不低。
“我们假设整体政策有利于（但并非完美）增长，并且不存在威胁到文明的重大灾难性事件。”新兴国家要做的事情有很多。除了培训和配置等努力之外，它们应当实现经济多样化，从而减少对原材料的依赖（如今尼日利亚和沙特就是这种情况），强化本国的政治机构和司法机构。
报道称，保持这些政策的延续性并非易事。并且，即使实施了这些政策，“也是在上述政策能够延续的前提下，关于未来潜在增长的预测，而并非对未来真实情况的预言”。
报道称，“黑天鹅”事件自然可能打破这些前景。普华永道的专家们与其他预测家们一样，没有预测到中国的开放、苏联的解体、福岛核事故或者雷曼兄弟银行的破产。他们很清楚风险的存在：“此一时彼一时，当新兴经济体成熟，短期政治风暴和经济风暴将不可避免地发生。”
但他们还是保持乐观：“如果企业和其他投资者有耐心，那么从更长期来说将获得显著收益。”换言之，未来的危机不会打破主要的价格上涨趋势。
报道称，如果接受这种假设，那么就会产生另一个问题。如果将近14亿中国人的生活水平跟现在6500万法国人的生活水平相当，这会是一个怎样的星球？答案很明显：一个比地球更广阔的星球，拥有更多的矿产资源以及对气体排放和温室效应不太敏感的生态系统。在一代人之后，数十亿人的生活水平可能高得多，这是一个绝妙消息。但是，这要求所有人采取别样的生活方式。
来源：参考消息
>责任编辑：李鹏
文章关键词： 生活 欧美 发展
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