Mr Li on China's economy: energy approach highlights

As a Professor of Tsinghua University Li daokui

　　Author: Tsinghua University Li daokui, Director of the Center for China and the world economy

Year of 2016 is the key to restructuring, judging from China's economic performance, does face some challenges, "Haze" from the international "bad-mouthing" the voice of China's economy, also from different risk of confusion in the financial markets. But on the whole, China's economy is currently operating, we are emboldened, and approaches, there are bright spots.

　　CLOUT: China is still huge potential for growth of the economy

Despite more than 30 years of rapid development, China today is still a huge potential for growth of the economy, the three most basic factors of economic growth remains unchanged. First of all, we have a stable, support Governments in the development of the market economy, it is vital. Center for China and the world economy at Tsinghua University to host the 27th China and the World Economic Forum, for "bad-mouthing" the voice of China's economy, former Chief Economist of Soros Fund management kelisituofu·weigen (Christopher Wiegand): "China's economy has the ability to resist risks. Pressure on slower economic growth is shifting, but Chinese policymakers are aware of the situation and the potential losses. Do not underestimate China's capacity to respond. "

Second on the economic growth factors is, continued growth of human capital. Now, many people worry about the problem of an ageing population, but we need to see is that labor health and education levels are rising. In 2015 the gross enrollment rate of higher education in China reached 38%, even more than 50% individual provinces reached the level of developed countries. According to the calculation of the Center for China and the world economy at Tsinghua University, China's average labor health level 5 years younger than 20 years ago, labor health level of continuous improvement, itself equivalent to the labor supply was improved.

Third growth factor is the continued opening of China's economy. Today, there is no doubt that China's economy is the world's largest open, not only to attract substantial foreign direct investment, Chinese capital "going out" involved in foreign investment momentum is also very hard, through international trade and investment to push China's economy needs to upgrade. Past experience tells us that there is a stable Government of supporting the development of market economy and continued growth of human capital and the continued opening of China's economy, as long as these three things right, China's economy will continue to grow.

　　China's economy has always been a challenge in the development of

Although China's economy met the challenges, but there is a way. The central economic work Conference 2016 five tasks: production capacity, inventory, leverage, reducing costs, fill the short Board. For example, "capacity", the State Council put forward within the next five years, reducing the backward production capacity of the steel and coal industries around 10%. We hope that "capacity" the pace and intensity can be increased. And in 1999, after the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis, China's textile industry, "capacity" than it was "capacity" much less challenging, whether employment or financial operations are much stronger than in 1999, if would be then determined capacity, will be able to make significant progress.

Such as "inventory", we believe that this year will also usher in the real estate boom. Real estate is diverse, one or two tier stock condition is not serious, instead of short-term investments must also be strengthened. Shanghai City, only three months of inventory, for example, Beijing had nine months of inventory for first-tier cities as well as some second-tier cities, until the middle of this year will also usher in a wave of real estate investment and development. Serious inventory and three or four cities, how the "inventory"? Accelerating new urbanization, rural populations to settle in the city that are not city, addressing the medical and the education of their children, this is more of a "supply side" reforms and "demand side" of reform.

Different from Western "deleveraging", "deleveraging" is the core of "adjusting lever", due to speed up restructuring of corporate debt. In other words, Central Government debts still need to improve a little, not a huge, highly liquid debt market, many financial aspects of the operation very difficult to run. Generally speaking, China's economy, macroeconomic leverage in the world's major economies is not generally considered 250% of the overall level of debt per cent of GDP, with the United States is consistent, and Japan is higher than 400%. China's national savings rate was as high as 50%, countries with high savings rates, leverage increased, not only is not a violation of the laws of Economics, it is a manifestation of increased efficiency.

　　Highlights: huge internal power is taking shape

According to the analysis of the Center for China and the world economy at Tsinghua University, judging from data in December of this year, rising trend in the real economy gradually picked up. An important factor driving China's economic growth last year was financial, and its weight was about 9%, while the financial services industry added value up to 15.9% last year, which was a huge pulling power. This year because of stock market volatility, finance to drive compared to the economic slowdown in May last year, but real economic recovery is under way, including fixed-asset investment has also increased.

The second highlight is, real estate development and investment this year is expected to bottom out in June at a rate of recovery. Growth in real estate investment and development in December last year was zero, the "zero growth" is not sustainable, in June this year in any case real estate investment growth will return to positive growth, the year is probably about 5%. A third highlights, from "child policy" of reform, China will be the second half of this year increased by 2 million newborn babies, also disproportionately stimulating China's consumption, we forecast that the child policy can boost consumption growth in GDP of about 0.2%.

If five tasks, as well as the new towns of the country, State-owned enterprise reform and some major reform measures set in place this year, in our view, in late 2016, 2017 at the latest the first half of this round of China's economic growth downward cycle will bottom out in 2018 and not only China's economy stabilized and rebounded slightly. 2016 is one worth looking forward to the year and, in General, China's economic clout, and that there were ways, highlight cases going to health. (Original cut)

(Editors: Wei-June UN810)
2016-03-09 13:32:33
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李稻葵谈中国经济：有底气有办法有亮点

图为清华大学李稻葵教授

　　作者：清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心主任 李稻葵

　　2016年是结构调整的关键之年，从中国经济运行的情况来看，的确面临一些挑战，这些“雾霾”既有来自国际上一些“唱衰”中国经济的声音，也有来自金融市场不同风险预期的困惑。但总体上讲，中国经济目前的运行态势，我们总结是：有底气、有办法、有亮点。

　　有底气：中国仍是增长潜力巨大的经济体

　　尽管经过了三十多年的高速发展，今天的中国仍是一个增长潜力巨大的经济体，最基本的三大经济增长因素仍然没有变。首先，我们有稳定的、支持市场经济发展的政府，这一点至关重要。在清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心主办的第27期中国与世界经济论坛上，针对一些“唱衰”中国经济的声音，索罗斯基金管理公司前首席经济学家克里斯托弗·韦根（Christopher Wiegand）就坦言：“中国经济有抵御风险的能力。经济增速换挡放缓确实带来了压力，但中国政策制定者现在已经意识到这一状况及潜在的可能损失。不要低估中国的应对能力”。

　　第二大经济增长要素是，持续增长的人力资本。现在不少人担忧人口老龄化的问题，但需要看到的是，我国劳动力健康水平和受教育水平是在不断提高的。2015年我国高等教育的毛入学率达到38%，个别省份甚至超过50%达到发达国家水平。根据清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心的测算，中国平均劳动力健康水平比20年前年轻了5岁，劳动力健康水平的持续提高，本身就相当于劳动力供给在提高。

　　第三个经济增长因素是中国经济的持续对外开放。今天的中国经济毫无疑问是全球第一大开放体，不仅吸引了大量外商直接投资，中国资本“走出去”参与对外投资的势头也很猛，通过国际贸易及投资逼着中国经济必须转型升级。过去的经验告诉我们：有稳定支持市场经济发展的政府；有持续增长的人力资本以及中国经济的持续对外开放，只要这三件事情做对了，中国经济就一定会持续增长。

　　中国经济从来都是在挑战中发展的

　　尽管中国经济碰到各种挑战，但还是有办法的。中央经济工作会议提出2016年五大任务：去产能、去库存、去杠杆、降成本、补短板。比如“去产能”，国务院提出在未来五年之内，减少钢铁和煤炭行业10%左右的落后产能。我们希望“去产能”步伐和力度可以加大一点。和1999年亚洲金融危机爆发之后，中国纺织行业的“去产能”相比，现在“去产能”的挑战少很多，无论是就业形势还是财政运营状况都比1999年强得多，如果拿出当时的决心来去产能，定能取得重大进展。

　　比如“去库存”，我们认为，今年年中还会迎来房地产热潮。房地产的情况是多元化的，一、二线城市库存情况并不严重，相反短期还必须加强投资。比如说上海市只有三个月的库存，北京有九个月的库存，对于一线城市以及部分二线城市，到今年年中还会迎来房地产投资开发的热潮。而三、四线城市库存比较严重，怎么“去库存”？就是加快新型城镇化，让农村还未进城的人口到城里定居，解决其医疗及子女受教育问题，这不仅是一个“供给侧”的改革，也是“需求侧”的改革。

　　区别于西方的“去杠杆”，我国“去杠杆”的核心在于“调杠杆”，适当把一些企业界的债务加快重组。也就是说，中央政府的债务还需要提高一点，没有一个巨大的、高流动的国债市场，很多金融方面的运作很难运行。从中国经济总体上来讲，宏观杠杆率在全球主要经济体里并不是最高的，一般认为整体债务水平占GDP的250%，跟美国基本一致，而日本则高达400%以上。中国国民储蓄率高达50%，储蓄率高的国家，杠杆率适当提高一点，不仅不是违反经济规律，反而是提高效率的一个表现。

　　有亮点：巨大的内生拉动力正在形成

　　根据清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心的分析，从今年1、2月份的各种数据来判断，实体经济上升的态势在逐步回升。去年拉动中国经济增长一个重要的因素是金融，其权重占9%左右，而金融业去年附加值高达15.9%，这是一个巨大的拉动力。今年由于股市波动，金融业对经济的拉动相比于去年可能有所放缓，但实体经济的回暖正在进行，包括固定资产投资也有所上升。

　　第二个亮点是，今年房地产行业投资开发的速度预计6月份见底回升。房地产投资开发增速去年12月份是零增长，这个“零增长”是不可持续的，预计今年6月份无论如何房地产投资开发的增速会归到正增长，全年大概是5%左右。第三个亮点，来自“二胎政策”的改革，今年下半年中国将增200万的新生婴儿，也能不成比例的拉动中国的消费，我们预测，二胎政策能拉动GDP约0.2%的消费增长。

　　如果国家提出的五大任务以及新型城镇化、国企改革等一些列重大改革措施今年能够到位的话，我们认为，2016年下半年，最晚2017年上半年，这一轮中国经济增长速度下行的周期会触底，而2018年的中国经济增速不但稳住且略有回升。2016年是一个值得期待的一年，总的来说，中国经济是在有底气、有办法、有亮点的情况下逐步走向健康的。（原文亦有删减）

(责任编辑：隗俊 UN810)
2016-03-09 13:32:33
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