Experts estimated last year the people's Bank of China profits | 180 billion yuan profit _ by the PBC news

Central Bank yearly profit of 180 billion currency loss

Central banks do not publish earnings figures, scholars say bank accounts will promote increased transparency

If the people's Bank of China as well as listed companies publish financial reports profit column is how much? A few days ago, Qian Minwei and Yu 璟yu the author calculated profits from the Central Bank. Their rough estimate came to the conclusion that: the people's Bank of China last year was profitable, there are about 180 billion yuan.

This article noted that the assets held by the Central Bank the main income is through balance of income after the deduction of the cost of interest on liabilities, this is similar to the commercial bank interest margin income. Central Bank's intermediate business income and administrative operational costs associated with huge spreads compared to income, is not an order of magnitude, which can be ignored. Article in calculating profit, only spreads the field.

Because central banks do not publish earnings figures, released only to the monetary authorities of the balance sheet, and the specific structure of the assets is kept secret, the article said, is based on the balance sheet as mean as the average of the beginning and end, and some research results through a number of publicly available information, as well as scholars, as a rough estimate.

　　Bank revenue last year of about RMB 827.2 billion

Looking from assets, foreign exchange reserves held by the Central Bank of China has become the main asset. From 2003 to 2013, the Central Bank's total assets increased from 6.2 trillion yuan to 31.73 trillion, of which, from 2.98 trillion of foreign exchange rose to 26.43 trillion, Forex has five-sixths per cent of total assets. Average foreign currency assets are held in 2013 23 trillion.

Articles assumed the Central Bank's asset-allocation and structure of global reserve currency (US $ 65%, EURO 26%) similar to accounting of long-term debt assumed in order to hold them to maturity, according to United States, and Germany and other countries data, assuming a yield of 3%.

Other overseas equity asset class, the article may refer to the CIC's figure for the same period last year, and major stock markets in Europe and America, overall yields should be higher than 3%, taking into account the percentage is not high, are conservatively calculated using 3% yields the article, so that a rough estimate of foreign currency assets earn about 692.7 billion last year. In addition, the Central external refinancing and rediscount operations and estimated interest income of 134.5 billion yuan of national debt. Above total estimation of 2013, the Bank's total revenue of approximately RMB 827.2 billion yuan.

　　Last year, the Central Bank total cost of about 358 billion yuan

Looking from debt, currency and reserve constituted mainly by the Central Bank debt. Paper points out that, from 2003 to 2013, from 2.12 trillion on currency rose to 6.93 trillion, with almost no cost; the reserve average is 19.3 trillion last year, statutory reserves are 1.62%, excess reserve rate is 0.72% Government deposits an average of 2.47 trillion last year, the Central Bank to pay interest on demand deposits; CBF and other interest-bearing liabilities 2008-high 4.5 trillion, down from the current 770 billion, the Central Bank has been gradually replaced with more low-cost deposits to CBF used to recycle hedges was forced to release the amount of money because of the increase in foreign exchange reserves. To estimate debt in 2013 port shall pay the total cost of about 358 billion.

　　Devaluation of the currency and the drop in prices to the Central Bank profit damage

Subtracts the interest income and expenses, and calculate China's Central Bank's net interest margin of about 469.2 billion yuan in 2013. However, the article also noted that the Central Bank holdings of foreign currency assets from the perspective of Yuan-denominated report, great influence on fluctuations in exchange rates on the Central Bank's foreign currency revaluation, devaluation of the US dollar relative to the Yuan 1.89% last year, the euro relative to the Renminbi 0.68%, average assets measured in dollars and euros by 2013, exchange losses of 263 billion last year.

In addition, the Central Bank holdings of gold assets to cost 2013 gold by 30%, book 67 billion yuan to float 20 billion gold could suffer losses.

Deduct unrealized losses after Exchange losses and gold, was counted out about 180 billion yuan of profits last year, is still a very impressive numbers.

　　Central banks are not for-profit

Articles stressed that global central banks are official bodies to formulate and implement monetary policy and its basic functions, not for profit-making purposes, but not the pursuit of profits does not mean no profit. In actual operation, the Bank will also give priority to low cost ways and tools to implement monetary policy.

"Profit is not the Central Bank's objectives, is the Central Bank's conduct of monetary policy, by-product of function, but it does exist. "Yesterday by the Central University of finance and banking of China Guo tianyong, Director of the research center of Beijing Youth daily said the profits mainly spreads from the Central Bank, to a certain extent is also earned money from commercial banks. If the Central Bank's profits much, commercial bank profits may be a little less. When setting monetary policy, but central bankers cannot just trying to earn money in commercial banks. Central banks do not take profit factors into account in their decisions.

Because Chinese banks seldom disclose relevant details of Qian Minwei and Yu 璟yu in this article's calculations, using a number of assumptions and extrapolations. Thus, their conclusion has been questioned. In this regard, the financial columnist Xiaolei believes that in the condition of existing data, and can only assume so much research and discussion, would push the Central Bank to increase transparency.

Worth noting is that in many countries of the world's central banks will announce earnings. United States Central Bank fed 2012 profits turned over to the Treasury amounted to 88.4 billion dollars, 2013 earnings as high as $ 81.4 billion. Germany's Central Bank 2013 profit rose to 4.6 billion euros in 2012 to 664 million euros. In 2013, profits have increased by seven times, and their level of risk reserves remained at a steady state. Japan's Central Bank fiscal year 2013 total operating income amounted to 1.28 trillion yen, to 724.5 billion yen in net profit.

Text/reporter Cheng Jie

(Edit: SN064)
04:18 on June 15, 2014 The Beijing Youth daily