Five Really Dumb Money Moves You've Got to Avoid
You know the smartest things to do with your money. But what are the worst moves? What should you avoid?
Weirdly enough, they are things that a surprising number of people are still doing─even though they probably know, in their heart of hearts, how foolish
they really are.
Any list is going to be incomplete. But here are five to avoid.
1. Reaching for yield
What this country needs is a good 5% certificate of deposit. Instead the collapse in interest rates, and the Federal Reserve's policy of keeping them down
for as long as possible, is driving people crazy─especially people who need to generate income from their investments.
In these circumstances, people start to do really foolish things in the desperate hunt for higher interest rates. That includes taking on crazy amounts of
risk, or investing in complex products they don't understand, in the hope of higher yields. The Fed is producing a bull market in scams, Ponzi schemes and
associated rackets.
The Securities and Exchange Commission recently warned about an epidemic of bogus high-yield 'corporate promissory notes' being marketed to investors by scam
artists.
The Wall Street Journal's Jason Zweig highlighted the woes of those sold complex 'reverse convertibles, ' a legal but complicated product with embedded
risks. Eric Lewis, chief investment officer of Bedrock Capital Management in Los Altos, Calif., suggests that if you can't explain an investment to a friend,
including what might go wrong, you should think twice.
A high-yield bond fund such as the iShares High Yield Corporate Bond exchange-traded fund (HYG), which lends money to risky companies, sports a yield of
about 5%. That's the maximum yield you can earn without taking on much more risk.
2. Going into the poor house to send Junior to a country-club college
Over the past 40 years, the cost of tuition and fees at a private university has tripled─after accounting for inflation. The cost of a public university has
quadrupled.
The cost of getting a bachelor's degree has become a scandal in this country. Students spend $160, 000 on a four-year degree and the results are too often
questionable.
Financial planners strongly advise parents against plundering their own retirement savings, which they are likely to need, to pay for this.
Admittedly, a degree has become a protection racket─you can't get a job without one, but there are fewer jobs for those with them. But the smart move for
the budget-constrained is to get a bachelor's degree at a public university. The tuition and fees average less than $9, 000 a year instead of $30, 000 at a
private college.
3. Owning stock in your employer
This is one of the silliest and riskiest moves any investor can make. If the company hits trouble, you get whacked twice. You can lose your job and your
savings─all in one fell swoop. Ask anyone who worked for Enron…or Lehman Brothers.
The law, amazingly, actually encourages this crazy move. While employers' 401(k) plans are subject to punitive regulations, lest they allow you to take on
too much 'risk, ' employers are allowed to offer their own stock among the investment options. Many do.
The Employee Benefit Research Institute says that the percentage of 401(k) assets held in employers' stock has been halved since 2000, but the numbers are
still alarming. Furthermore, it's the youngest workers─those best able to take a gamble─who are shunning their employers' company stock.
At companies where the 401(k) plan offers the option, workers aged 40 or over typically hold about 20% of their entire 401(k) account in the company's stock,
according to EBRI data. Crazy.
根据员工福利研究所的数据，在那些于401(k)计划中提供了持有本公司股票这一投资选择的公司中，年龄在40岁或者以上的员工通常会将自己的401(k)账户中大约20%的资产用于投
资本公司股票。这简直是疯了。
4. Taking Social Security too early
If you can afford to delay taking your Social Security retirement benefit, do.
Someone earning $50, 000 a year who starts claiming Social Security as soon as he or she is able, age 62, will typically collect a monthly check of about $1,
000, according to the Social Security Administration. If they wait until they are 70, that amount would double.
Taking Social Security too early, or without thinking through the consequences, is one of the biggest financial blunders people can make─roughly on a par
with buying tech stocks in 2000 or a Las Vegas condo in 2006. The lure of getting money early can blind people to the big cost down the road.
(Many retirees may not have much of a choice. Hard labor at low pay over a lifetime takes its toll on a person. Also, many companies all but force older
workers into early retirements.)
In any case, it doesn't take more than just a few years before the total money accrued with the higher, later benefits surpasses the total earned starting at
the earlier retirement age.
But that understates the bigger issue. Social Security is insurance. For many retirees, the big risk isn't that they will run out of money before they turn
70, but after 85. According to the Centers for Disease Control, more than half of women currently age 65 will live to 85 or longer, and three out of eight
men.
David Blanchett, head of retirement research for financial research firm Morningstar, says it makes sense for women, married couples and those with good
health to wait longer for a bigger paycheck.
5. Buying long-term bonds
A surprising number of people still subscribe to the flawed and circular argument that bonds, including long-term government bonds, are 'safe.' In reality,
bonds─especially long-term government bonds─are the rare example of a bubble that has been explicitly declared.
The Fed is openly printing money and using it to buy up such bonds, driving up the price and driving down the interest rates, in order to help the economy.
There is no dispute about this. It's public policy.
A 30-year Treasury bond currently sports an interest rate of just 3.1%. That's barely half a percentage point above long-term inflation forecasts. Based on
history, the yield should be at least 4.5%, or two percentage points above inflation.
Thirty-year Treasury inflation-protected securities, known as TIPS, sport a 'real' or inflation-adjusted yield of 0.6% a year. Again, it should be 2%.
The only reason to buy such bonds in any quantity is to gamble on a 1930s-style depression and world-wide deflation. Such bonds are a gamble, not a safe
haven.
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五种最愚蠢的投资理财方式
自己的钱该怎么打理才最明智，对此你一定心知肚明。但是你知道最糟糕的做法是什么吗？哪些是你应该避免的呢？
奇怪的是，那些应该避免的事情却有很多人仍然在做，而且人数之多让人瞠目──尽管这些人在内心深处可能很清楚自己的做法实际上有多愚蠢。
想把这些蠢事一个不落地全列出来恐怕不可能。不过我们可以试着列出其中的五件。
1. 追求高收益率
美国这个国家需要的是收益率能够达到5%的定期存单。然而，这里有的只是利率的一降再降，以及联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)尽量将利率维持在低位的政策，这样的现状逼
得人们愈加疯狂──对于那些需要从投资中获取收益的人而言尤其如此。
在此环境下，人们在绝望地寻找着更高的收益率，并为此开始犯下着实愚蠢的错误。这其中包括为争取获得更高的收益率而不惜承担极高的风险、或是投资那些他们毫不了解的复
杂产品。美联储正在打造着一个各类阴谋、旁氏骗局和欺诈手段层出不穷的牛市。
美国证券交易委员会(Securities and Exchange Commission)最近提醒投资者小心，目前市场中有一种由骗子发行的虚假高收益“企业本票”在大量传播。
《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)的杰森?茨威格(Jason Zweig)指出了那些卖出“反向可转债”这一复杂产品的投资者所面临的困境，“反向可转债”是一种合法的金融
产品，不过此类产品结构复杂，其本身存在着潜在的风险。加利福尼亚州洛斯阿尔托斯(Los Altos)的资产管理公司Bedrock Capital Management的首席投资长埃里克?刘易斯(Eric
Lewis)建议，如果你无法向自己的朋友解释清楚一项投资，包括这项投资可能会面临什么风险，那么你最好三思而行。
诸如安硕高收益率企业债交易所交易基金(iShares High Yield Corporate Bond exchange-traded fund)这样的高收益率债券基金为风险较高的企业提供贷款，这类基金的收益率
约为5%。这是你在不承担过高风险的情况下能够挣到的最高收益率。
2. 倾家荡产送孩子去私立大学读书
过去40年来，美国私立大学的学费以及各种开销增长了两倍──扣除了通货膨胀因素之后。公立大学的就读成本则是40年前的四倍。
在美国攻读一个本科学位所需开销数字之大，简直成了这个国家的耻辱。学生完成为期四年的学位攻读需要花费16万美元，而学习的效果往往还很成问题。
理财专家们强烈建议学生家长们不要将自己的养老积蓄用来为孩子付学费，这笔钱他们自己可能还用得着。
诚然，学位已经成为一种护身符──没有它，你可能找不到工作，不过即便有了学位，职场中能够提供的就业机会也少了。而对于预算开支不那么富裕的家庭而言，明智的选择是
去公立大学读一个本科学位。读一所美国公立大学每年所需的学费和各种杂费平均不到9,000美元，而私立大学则需要三万美元。
3. 持有自己所工作企业的股票
这大概是投资者能够做出的最愚蠢、最冒险的举动之一了。如果这家公司遇上麻烦，你将遭受双重打击。你可能会在丢了饭碗的同时，丢掉自己的积蓄──一杆子打翻一篮子的蛋
。不信你去问问那些曾为安然(Enron)、或是雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)工作过的人。
令人惊讶的是，美国的法律实际上在鼓励这种疯狂的举动。虽然企业的401(k)计划受到监管部门监管，若企业让员工承担过高“风险”，则会受到惩罚，但是监管规定允许企业向
员工提供企业自己的股票作为投资选择之一。而实际上许多企业也在这么做。
员工福利研究所(Employee Benefit Research Institute)表示，自2000年以来，401(k)资产中雇主股票的占比已经减少了一半，不过目前的数字依然很惊人。而且，如今不愿意持
有自己公司股票的员工是那些最年轻的人，而这些人其实是承担风险能力最高的人。
4. 过早支取社保金
如果你有能力晚点支取自己的社保养老金，那么就晚点吧。
根据美国社会安全局(Social Security Administration)的数据，年薪五万美元的员工若在自己年满62岁这一支取社保金的规定年龄后即开始使用社保，则通常每月可以得到大约
1,000美元。如果他们能够等到70岁，那么这个数字将会翻倍。
过早支取社保金，毫不考虑后果，这是美国人可能犯下的最大的理财错误之一──其不明智的程度堪比在2000年买入科技股或是在2006年买下拉斯维加斯的一套公寓。早点拿到钱
的诱惑可能会让人们对未来即将付出的巨大代价视而不见。
（许多退休者可能没有太多选择。一辈子拿着低薪从事着艰苦的工作，是很折磨人的。而且，许多公司几乎是在强迫高龄员工早点退休。）
无论如何，多等上些时候去享受更高的福利，这样积累下来的数额用不了几年就能超过在退休年龄初期即开始提取的全部社保金额。
不过，这样说会让人们忽视一个更大的问题。社保金是一种保险。对于许多退休者而言，最大的风险不在于他们会在70岁之前没钱了，而是在85岁之后。根据美国疾病控制与预防
中心(Centers for Disease Control)的数据，目前年龄在65岁的女性中，超过半数的人将活到85岁甚至更久，男性中的这个比例为八分之三。
晨星公司(Morningstar)负责退休问题研究的主管戴维?布兰切特(David Blanchett)说，对于女性、已婚夫妇和那些身体状况良好者而言，应该多等些时间以便得到更高的福利，因
为这样做更为合理。
5. 购买长期债券
令人吃惊的人，仍有很多人接受这样的观点：包括长期政府债券在内的债券是“安全的”。实际上，债券──特别是长期政府债券──是少有的一种已经被明确宣告的泡沫。
美联储在毫不掩饰地大肆印着钞票，并用这些印出来的钞票买国债，从而抬高这类债券的价格，压低利率，以便能够帮助提振美国经济。这一点毫无争议。这是公开的政策。
30年期美国国债目前的收益率仅为3.1%。这比长期通货膨胀预期仅高出半个百分点。如果以过往的标准来衡量，30年期国债的收益率应该至少达到4.5%，比通货膨胀率高出两个百
分点。
30年期通胀挂钩国债的“实际”年收益率，即扣除通货膨胀因素后的收益率，为0.6%。而以过往的标准来衡量，这一收益率应当是2%。
唯一的理由购买这种债券在任何数量是赌1930年代那样的萧条和世界范围的通货紧缩。这种债券是一场赌博,而不是一个安全的避风港。
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