Southern flooding: floods this year compared to 1998 the similarities?
Beijing News Alerts (by Deng Qi), the China Meteorological Administration said, as is the El Ni?o and the following year, China climate background and weather conditions there are many similarities with 1998, so this year's rainfall and flood have some comparability with the 1998.
National climate Centre, meteorological disaster risk management Office Chief expert Ye Dianxiu stressed that studies show that El Nino event will have a significant impact on the climate in China; and 1998 are similar this year is obviously more precipitation in the Yangtze River basin is also affected by the strong El Ni?o event of the results.
From June 1998 to August, the Yangtze River Valley since 1954 and a basin-wide flood, a test of our severest floods in the NEN River and the Songhua River, is the year rare floods in China since the founding of new China. Into since the flood season this year, heavy rain in South China frequently, precipitation, strong strength. The Yangtze River Valley with an average precipitation and average number of days of heavy rain since 1961 the same period most precipitation in Songhua River basin more than for the same period the second, liaohe River basin more than average rainfall for the same period last, and two basin above average number of days of heavy rain since 1961 history over the second.
The China Meteorological Administration said since the flood season this year in the national average rainfall is 5% more than the same period in 1998, heavy rain and more 6. But, unlike in 1998 is that rain South swing band this year, rainfall maximum duration than the same period in 1998. For example, June 12, 1998 – 27th rainstorm that lasted 16 days, and so far this year for a maximum duration of 7 days.
China Meteorological Administration, Zheng guoguang, said on June 29 so far, degree of summer floods in China this year is weaker in 1998.
China Institute of water conservancy and hydropower and flood control experts in the field, the National Committee for disaster reduction expert Committee member Cheng Xiaotao, said so far, the floods this year and 1998 are very different. 1998 belongs to the whole basin flooding, widespread heavy rain continued, and this storm is one after another, but relatively sparse, not as concentrated as 1998, so have yet to form a basin flood.
National Climate Center climate monitoring and research of engineering Zhou Bing believes that case since the flood season from March 21 this year, and this year's situation is not optimistic. This year face very severe flood in the Yangtze River basin, this is a huge challenge, the risk of flooding is relatively large. But in 1998, now has one primary function is the defence of three gorges project and dispatching flood, this function could emerge this year.
Li Jing, a professor at Beijing Normal University thinks, since 1998 the country has taken a series of engineering and non-engineering measures on disaster reduction, was established to improve the disaster prevention and mitigation system. Includes the major tributaries of the Yangtze River, such as the Han River of the Yangtze River, built in the three Gorges reservoir as a representative of a group of flood control projects, defense should be guaranteed, "and even in the event and the flood of 1998 of the same, I personally think that the same situation cannot occur. ”
(Editors: Liu Cheng UN649)
2016-07-05 21:41:26
The Beijing News
南方水灾：今年洪灾跟1998年相比有何异同？
新京报快讯(记者邓琦)中国气象局表示，由于同是厄尔尼诺次年，今年我国的气候背景和气候条件与1998年有许多类似之处，因此今年的雨情和汛情与1998年有一定可比性。
国家气候中心气象灾害风险管理室首席专家叶殿秀强调，研究表明，厄尔尼诺事件对我国气候会产生明显的影响;与1998年相似，今年长江流域降水明显偏多也是受超强厄尔尼诺事件影响的结果。
1998年6月至8月，长江流域发生了继1954年之后又一次全流域性大洪水，嫩江、松花江发生了百年不遇的特大洪水，是新中国成立以来我国少有的重涝年份。今年入汛以来，我国南方地区强降水过程频繁，降水量多、强度强。长江流域平均降水量和平均暴雨日数均为1961年以来历史同期最多;松花江流域降水量为历史同期第二多，辽河流域平均降水量为历史同期第五多，而且以上两个流域的平均暴雨日数均为1961年以来历史同期第二多。
中国气象局表示，今年入汛以来全国平均降水量比1998年同期偏多5%，暴雨过程偏多6次。但与1998年不同的是，今年雨带位置南北摆动大，暴雨过程的最长持续时间不如1998年同期。如，1998年6月12日—27日的暴雨过程持续了16天，而今年到目前为止最长持续时间为7天。
中国气象局局长郑国光6月29日表示，从目前来看，今年我国夏季洪涝灾害程度要弱于1998年。
中国水利水电科学研究院防洪领域专家、国家减灾委专家委员会委员程晓陶表示，从目前来看，今年的洪水与1998年有很大差别。1998年属于全流域洪水，大范围暴雨不停地下，而今年暴雨是一场接一场，但相对分散，不像1998年那样集中，所以至今尚未形成流域型大洪水。
国家气候中心气候监测室正研级高工周兵认为，从今年3月21日开汛以来的情况看，今年的形势不容乐观。今年长江流域确实面临着非常严峻的汛期，这个是一个巨大的挑战，出现洪涝的风险比较大。不过相比于1998年，现在的三峡工程有一个主要功能是防御和调度洪水，这个功能在今年可能会显现出来。
北京师范大学教授李京认为，1998年以后国家采取了一系列工程和非工程减灾措施，建立了更完善的防灾减灾体系。在长江包括长江一些大的支流如汉江，建设了以三峡为代表的一批防洪工程，防御方面应该是有保证的，“而且即便出现了与1998年同样的大水，我个人认为不可能出现同样的灾情局面。”
(责任编辑：刘盛钱 UN649)
2016-07-05 21:41:26
新京报