Japan economic experts: China's property market will not be repeated, Japan crash mistakes | property | Japan real estate collapse _ news

Original title: China's property market will not be repeated, Japan experience

"Day" antianminghong

Whenever a rapid rise in housing prices in some cities in China, "the collapse of the bubble economy in China" will be in the field of public opinion in China and Japan over, China's real estate bubble burst before the Japan economy comparable articles are not uncommon.

First need to recognize that China did go out with before the housing bubble burst, Japan has some similarities.

Foreign exchange intervention led to excess liquidity. In 1985, the Plaza and the appreciation of the yen, as a recovery economy excess liquidity caused by buying dollars, causing asset bubbles. After the 2005 revaluation by China, in order to maintain a stable currency and buying dollars, plus introduced in 2008 "the 4 trillion stimulus package", the problem of excess liquidity exists in a certain range.

Second, workforce reduction. Japan 90 during the first half of the last century ushered in the labour force population peak, then decline, affecting housing demand. China also faces the problem of population decline in dividends.

Third, price fluctuations. Japan before the collapse of the bubble economy, relatively stable prices, enter a long period of deflation after the collapse. China even though the price is relatively stable, but due to monetary policy lag, deflation remains vigilant, PPI decline is an example for several years.

Four is the presence of shadow banking. In Japan, companies engaged in housing finance through non-banking financing institutions, unable to recover after the bubble burst, bad claims processing takes longer. In China, trust funds or funds from some of the Bank's financial products also partly through the local financing platforms into the real estate market.

Five financial liberalization. 80 's of last century's financial liberalization has made Japan business financing funding diversification, but overseas funds also contribute to asset bubbles. FTA construction, the lower limit for deposit rates of revocation, the offshore Yuan market, such as the creation of measures to accelerate the process of financial liberalization in China at the same time, also brings the risk of bubble.

However, China can still learn from Japan experience, avoid a bubble economy burst and the prolonged slump of the old ways.

First of all, different stages of development in China and Japan. Japan economic bubble bursts, lack of potential for economic growth. Although China has ended a period of rapid development, but still maintained a rapid economic growth, has the potential to be tapped.

Followed by Sino-Japanese economic system is different. Japan is a liberal economy, and China's socialist market economy, the Government macro-control ability. In the liberal economic system, Japan Government difficult to control policy limitation of speed, timing, balance, and China is flexible on the issue and execution. From another point of view, the Chinese people more confident about the Government's economic policy that the Government has the ability to introduce emergency measures.

Once again is the gap between the level of urbanization. Economic maturity of Japan completed the urbanization, housing demand is not significant; China's rapid urbanization is still in development, the strong demand for housing.

Not only that, but with Japan than China's vast land and area economy development differences, regional trends with the national trend of inconsistency is a normal phenomenon. In terms of house prices, for example, rising only in part one or two cities.

China's economy into the new normal, housing market as well. Fluctuation of property prices in some cities can be said to be the inflation and bursting of a bubble, but China is not Japan-like into the "lost 20 years." China's rapid economic growth has underpinned the housing market, the Government's housing policy are often able to work in a timely manner. ▲ (Author of Mitsui Sumitomo Trust is based overseas market research Institute researcher, Deputy Director of the Department)

Responsible editor: Ni Zi Jiang

Article keywords:
China real estate Japan real estate crash

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日本经济专家：中国房市不会重蹈日本崩溃覆辙|中国房地产|日本房地产崩溃_新闻资讯

　　原标题：中国房市不会重蹈日本覆辙

　　【日】安田明宏

　　每当中国一些城市房价快速上涨，“中国泡沫经济崩溃论”便会在中日两国的舆论场甚嚣尘上，将中国房地产与泡沫破裂前的日本经济相提并论的文章屡见不鲜。

　　首先需要承认，中国确实跟房地产泡沫破裂前的日本有一定相似性。

　　一是外汇干预导致流动性过剩。1985年，日元因广场协议而升值，为恢复经济景气大量买入美金造成流动性过剩，引起资产泡沫。中国2005年人民币汇改后，为维持币值稳定而买入美元，外加2008年推出的“四万亿刺激方案”，流动性过剩的问题也在一定范围内存在。

　　二是劳动力减少。日本上世纪90年代前半段迎来劳动力人口峰值，之后便呈下降趋势，影响住房需求。中国也面临人口红利下降的问题。

　　三是物价波动。日本泡沫经济破裂前，物价相对稳定，破裂后进入长期通缩。中国尽管目前物价相对稳定，但由于金融政策具有滞后性，通缩风险仍须警惕，PPI连续几年下降就是个例子。

　　四是影子银行的存在。在日本，从事住宅金融的公司经由非银行机构进行融资，在泡沫破裂后无法收回，不良债权的处理花费时间较长。在中国，信托资金或来自银行的一些理财产品资金也部分经由地方融资平台流入房产市场。

　　五是金融自由化。上世纪80年代开始的金融自由化虽使日本企业筹措资金的途径多样化，但海外资金同样助长资产泡沫。自贸区的建设、存款利率上下限的撤销、人民币离岸市场的创设等措施在加速中国金融自由化进程的同时，也带来泡沫膨胀的风险。

　　尽管如此，中国仍可借鉴日本经验，避免走上泡沫经济破裂以及长期经济低迷的老路。

　　首先，中日两国发展阶段不同。日本经济泡沫破裂时，经济成长缺乏潜力。中国虽已结束高速发展时期，但仍维持中高速经济增长，有潜力可挖。

　　其次是中日经济体制不同。日本是自由主义经济，而中国是社会主义市场经济，政府宏观调控能力较强。在自由主义经济体制下，日本政府施策速度、时机、时效的平衡很难掌控，而中国在这一问题上兼具弹性和执行力。从另一个角度看，中国民众对政府经济政策更有信心，认为政府有能力出台急救措施。

　　再次是两国城镇化程度有差距。处于经济成熟期的日本已完成城市化，住宅需求不大；中国的城镇化仍在高速发展中，住宅需求强劲。

　　不仅如此，与日本相比，中国地大物博，地区经济发展差异性较大，局部地区的动向与全国发展趋势出现不一致是正常现象。以房价为例，迅速上涨只存在于部分一、二线城市。

　　中国经济进入新常态，房市也是如此。一些城市的房价波动可说是泡沫的膨胀与破裂，但中国不会如日本般进入“失去的20年”。中国经济的中高速增长率支撑了房屋市场，政府出台的房地产政策往往能够及时奏效。▲（作者是三井住友信托基础研究所海外市场调查部副主任研究员）

责任编辑：倪子牮

文章关键词：
中国房地产 日本房地产崩溃

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